Peanuts: We are looking at a difficult year

USA: The farmers find it difficult to identifyinggood quality peanut as a resultof Hurricane Michael which had a great impact on the crops. With plantings expected to increase from 1 % to 2% and with the carryover of the 2017 crop, it is still not enough and it may be difficult to find offers for EU quality. As per USDA peanut crop estimates on 20 l 9 crop, it is up 1.65 per cent from last year 29th March estimates. This figures might fluctuate depending on factors such as domestic price behaviour and cotton futures

China: Post Chinese New Year (Spring festival) the situation in China has changed dramatically. Starting from the beginning of March, China’s peanut market rose gradually. Local traders believed sufficient peanuts are available with at least 30% still in the hands of the farmers. But it seems not, and the Chinese market shot up almest $200- $300 per ton. Crushing factories in various production areas experience difficulty in purchasing peanuts. Same farmers said that they made margins as much as $60000 on a 200 ton stock-hold. lt could be a case of speculation before the next harvest. We expect the next harvest to begin during August and the Chinese market to cool down in the months of May & June as there are no festivals.

Brazil: Brazil will end up with roughly 20% less volume compared to last year. The harvest is completed with lower yields. Brazifian shellers are also confronted with a higher percentage of aflatoxin as weil as other issues related to the drought in January and a heavy rainfall during harvesting time. Offers for Brazilian Blanched Runner 38/42 crop 2019 are at around USD 1500 per mt CFR which is more expensive than their competition from Argentina.

South Africa: SA will end up having a small crop and will be forced to import 30,000 to 40,000 mt at least, and probably the peanuts will come from Argentina and Brazil.