Situation on hazelnut market is not clear at the moment. News regarding record export in 2019 and rumours regarding less crop than expected driving prices up. Relatively stronger dollar strengthened the effect (1 USD = 5.8827 TL) . At the moment offers from Turkey vary between 7,30 – 7,50 $/kg, DAP Hamburg terms. Local market: 39-40 TRY/kg kernel basis. 

Last announced official datas:

* Export between 01.09.2019-12.01.2020  – 177 431,9 tons/kernel
       Crop 2016/2017 – 885,9 
       Crop 2018 –  9 628 
       Crop 2019 –  166 918 
(Source: Turkish hazelnut export figures W19 DATA)

*TMO still not officially published how much they bought this season, but the lates data comes from Trabzon Exchange Stock is around 61k tons. Meantime TMO closed the gates for the farmers this season.

* Trabzon Commodity Exchange updated the statistics. The last data says, that 527 846 tons of in-shell hazelnut are already sold by farmers. (Source)

* 01/01/2019 – 31/12/2019 Turkey exported 320k tons hazelnut kernels worth 2.028 billion USD, which is absolute record quantity based. Value based record were in year 2015, when Turkey exported 240k tons hazelnut kernels worth 2.8 billion USD. (Source)

So, what we have at hands:

Forecast :                                            776k tons in-shell (Giresun Exchange )
Total bought from farmers:                 -528k tons
Still at farmers’ hands                      248k tons

Total bough from farmers:                   528k tons
Exported:                                           -344k tons
TMO / Traders / Exporters stock:    184k tons

Local Market Consumption:           –90k tons (average) 

TMO bought (last official data):     –61k tons

Comments: Each year Turkey exporting around 250-300k tons kernel basis (Source). If they already exported 171k tons, just 149k tons kernel basis (or roughly 258k tons in-shell basis) left to catch the maximum export quantity. So, 281k (248k+184k-90k-61k) tons hazelnuts in shell are still available for export. Based on above data, in case if last available data regarding quantities in TMO stock is still actual, then as result we have enough raw material to fulfil the market and no need to put additional quantities from TMO stock.

Of course here are a lot of variables like:
1) Real crop quantity. It could be 800k tons or even 600k tons. 
2) Or Turkey may realise record export quantity (higher than 300k tons), 
3) TMO may bought more than 61k tons of in-shell hazelnuts
4) Currency fluctuation. Last forecast were above 6 TRY – 1 USD in Q1 2020 and 6,60 – 1 USD in Q4.
5) And finally weather conditions and situation in hazelnut gardens after winter will give us an idea about new crop.


Prices in Azerbaijani hazelnut market also going up, following Turkey. 

By Nizami Emreli

Learn more: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/azerbaijani-hazelnuts-bit-history-nizami-emreli/